Market Intelligence · INTEL
See category demand a quarter early
+1Q
Category demand announces itself in search behaviour and official statistics before it reaches your sales report. This engagement composes those public signals into one index and tests how far ahead it actually runs.
The process
Assemble the public signals
Search volume, government and trade-body statistics, and platform-published category signals collected on a fixed schedule, each with its source recorded.
Clean and align the series
Seasonality, holiday calendars and revision lags handled per series, so a statistical revision does not read as a demand shift.
Test the lead
Each candidate signal cross-correlated against your own category sales to find how many weeks of lead it genuinely carries — signals with no lead are dropped.
Compose and publish the index
Surviving signals weighted into a single index, refreshed on schedule, with the component contributions visible rather than hidden in the number.
Back-test and review
The index run against past turning points to state its error honestly, then reviewed quarterly as signals gain or lose their lead.
What we need from you
- Your category sales history for calibration
- The category and markets in scope
- Agreement on which public sources are acceptable
What you get
- Documented signal set with sources
- Lead-time test results per signal
- Composite leading index with back-test and refresh schedule
Timeline
Six to ten weeks, including the back-test.