Indonesia and the U.S. now need separate TikTok Shop playbooks

Momentum Works, citing Tabcut, estimated TikTok Shop global GMV at US$26.2 billion in H1 2025, roughly doubling year-on-year. The same public summary puts U.S. H1 GMV at US$5.8 billion, up 91%, and Indonesia at US$6.0 billion — making Indonesia the largest recorded market in that half. This brief keeps those figures inside their public-estimate scope and turns to other market sources for the operating implications.

What the numbers show is a platform that no longer has one growth model. Indonesia was the largest recorded market in the H1 estimate, and the public summary does not attribute that result to any single operating factor. The U.S. represents a second curve, running in a mature retail market where trust and fulfilment requirements have to be verified locally.

A half-year at US$26.2B means the test period is over

A platform generating US$26.2 billion of GMV in six months should not be managed as an experimental social add-on. It needs the operating discipline of a major commerce channel: assortment, content production, creators, ads, customer service, fulfillment and returns.

The market ranking carries its own signal. Indonesia at US$6.0 billion and the U.S. at US$5.8 billion were nearly level in H1 2025 — evidence of a multi-market platform phase, though not evidence of how seller tools or campaign rules have changed.

That makes early operating capability worth more than short-term traffic arbitrage. A brand building content testing, creator relationships, product-page proof and fulfillment discipline now is building reusable channel infrastructure rather than chasing cheaper reach.

Indonesia is the Southeast Asia battlefield

Indonesia was the largest recorded market in the H1 estimate, which makes it a priority for country-specific testing. It is not evidence that the same operating assumptions hold across Southeast Asia.

Cube's SEA-6 tracking supplies the regional context by estimating physical-goods GMV across Shopee, Lazada and TikTok Shop. Within that three-platform pool, TikTok Shop grew 66% in 2025 and rose from 23% to 31%, while Shopee still led with 59%. It is a platform-comparison estimate, not a measure of all Southeast Asian ecommerce.

Thailand offers a visible operating reference. TikTok Shop Thailand presents creators, shoppable video, live commerce and in-app checkout as one connected seller journey, and the ThaiRisers campaign highlights selected brands using affiliate, ads, campaigns, Mall and live commerce. Not market averages, but a clear statement of how the platform wants sellers to combine content, creator incentives and transaction tooling.

The U.S. is a second curve, not the same playbook

The U.S. H1 figure indicates that content commerce can work in a mature retail market. It does not show that a Southeast Asian playbook transfers unchanged, and a U.S. test still has to verify delivery, returns, reviews, brand proof and after-sales requirements.

The public H1 summary also separates format assumptions worth carrying into that test: U.S. live GMV share rose from 10% to 14%, while video remained the main sales format. The everyday U.S. model, on that reading, may lean more on short video, creator affiliate and product-page credibility than on live sessions alone.

The underlying logic stays content-to-purchase. Execution is what has to be re-tested — content, claims, returns, fulfilment and offer design, market by market, before paid distribution scales behind any of it.

Split Video, Live, Affiliate and Ads

A recurring mistake is collapsing TikTok Shop into a single GMV line. The more useful view separates video GMV, live GMV, affiliate GMV, ads-driven GMV and campaign GMV, because each bucket carries its own cost structure and its own risk profile.

High video GMV alongside high refunds points at product-page claims or expectation mismatch. High live GMV with weak margin points at discounting or staffing cost. Strong affiliate GMV with low repeat purchase suggests the creator is producing one-time trial rather than durable brand demand.

The split becomes essential in cross-market work. The format that works in Indonesia may not be the format that works in the U.S., even though both sit inside TikTok Shop.

So what

The H1 2025 estimate shows a platform entering a multi-market operating phase. Indonesia remains central within that half, while the U.S. demonstrates that the commerce logic can scale in a mature retail environment. Managing both from one regional deck is the mistake available here.

The next decision is to build market-specific playbooks by country, category and content format, and to read GMV only after subtracting content production, creator cost, advertising, refunds and fulfillment. The winning playbook is the one that leaves repeatable gross profit behind, not the one with the largest top-line number.